Optimism Bias: 'This Year Will Be Better' (Will It Though?)

We're a few weeks into the new school year now.

How's that fresh start feeling? Still optimistic? Or has the reality of September already settled in - the same workload, the same pressures, the same exhaustion you promised yourself would be different this time?

If you spent the summer telling yourself this year would be better, you're not alone. And if you're already feeling that familiar sinking sensation, wondering how you convinced yourself things would magically improve, you're experiencing something psychologists call optimism bias.

It's not just hope. It's a cognitive pattern that keeps you stuck in a cycle of waiting - waiting for the right term, the right year, the right moment to finally make a change. And it's one of the biggest reasons teachers stay in roles that are making them miserable far longer than they need to.

What Is Optimism Bias?

Optimism bias is our tendency to believe that we're less likely to experience negative events and more likely to experience positive ones than others are. We think we'll be the exception. We believe things will work out, even when all the evidence suggests otherwise.

In teaching, this shows up as a persistent belief that the next term, the next academic year, or the next leadership change will somehow make everything better. You tell yourself: "Once I get through this term..." or "Next year will be different because..." or "Maybe after Christmas, things will settle down."

The problem? The system hasn't changed. The workload demands haven't changed. The reasons you were exhausted and frustrated last year are still there - you've just temporarily convinced yourself they won't affect you the same way this time.

Why We Keep Believing It'll Get Better

Our brains are wired to be optimistic. It's actually an evolutionary advantage in many situations - optimism helps us take risks, try new things, and keep going when things are hard.

But optimism bias also serves another purpose: it protects us from having to make difficult decisions. If you can convince yourself that things will improve on their own, you don't have to face the scary prospect of actually leaving. You don't have to update your CV, explore new careers, or confront the uncertainty of change.

It's easier to believe that this year will be different than to admit that staying isn't serving you anymore.

There's also the sunk cost fallacy at play. You've invested so much time, energy, and training into teaching. Walking away feels like admitting failure or wasting everything you've built. So you tell yourself it'll get better, because that narrative allows you to keep going without confronting the possibility that it might be time to leave.

The Cost of 'One More Term'

Here's the thing about optimism bias in teaching: it's not harmless. Every term you spend waiting for things to improve is another term of exhaustion, stress, and diminishing wellbeing.

Teachers often tell us they knew for two, three, even five years that they needed to leave before they actually did anything about it. They spent those years in a holding pattern - not fully engaged, not taking care of themselves, not building towards a future they actually wanted. Just waiting. Hoping. Telling themselves "maybe next term."

That's time you don't get back. And the longer you stay in survival mode, the harder it becomes to find the energy and clarity to actually make a change.

The Reality Check You Might Need

So let's be honest. Will this year be better?

Maybe, if something fundamental has changed - new leadership with a genuinely different approach, a significant restructure that reduces your workload, or a personal shift that means you're able to set boundaries you couldn't before.

But if the only thing that's changed is the calendar, if you're still in the same role with the same pressures and the same system... then no. This year probably won't be better. Not meaningfully. Not in a way that addresses why you've been thinking about leaving.

This isn't pessimism - it's realism. And sometimes realism is exactly what you need to stop waiting and start planning.

Breaking the Cycle

The antidote to optimism bias isn't giving up hope. It's replacing vague optimism with intentional action.

Instead of telling yourself things will improve, ask yourself: What would need to change for me to actually feel better about teaching? And is that change realistically going to happen?

If the answer is no, then it's time to stop waiting for the system to change and start creating change for yourself.

This doesn't mean you have to hand in your notice tomorrow. It means you stop putting your future on hold. You start exploring what else is out there. You begin building a plan, even if it takes time to execute.

What Intentional Planning Actually Looks Like

Breaking free from optimism bias means replacing hope with strategy. It means acknowledging that "maybe next term" isn't a plan - it's avoidance.

Real progress happens when you:

Get clear on what you actually need - not just what you're escaping from, but what you're moving towards. Understanding your values, financial must-haves, and non-negotiables gives you a compass instead of just a vague sense of dissatisfaction.
Explore your options with structure - not by scrolling endless job opportunities, but by systematically auditing your skills, exploring aligned pathways, and understanding what roles actually suit your strengths.
Take small, consistent action - updating your CV, learning how to use LinkedIn effectively, researching sectors, having conversations with people who've made the transition. These don't have to be huge dramatic leaps, but they're movement. And movement is what breaks the waiting cycle.
Get accountability and support - it's much harder to stay stuck in "maybe next year" when you're part of a community where people are actively making progress. When you see others moving forward through the same process, it normalises taking action rather than waiting.

The Adventures After Teaching Academy exists specifically to give you this structure. It's designed for teachers who are done waiting and ready to build an actual exit plan - whether that's over one term or a full year. You get a clear pathway through career change, live coaching to work through your specific challenges, and a community of people who understand exactly where you are.

It's not about rushing you out of teaching before you're ready. It's about giving you the tools and support to move forward when you're ready, instead of staying stuck in the hope that things will magically improve.

The Question Worth Asking

So here's the question: If this time next year, you're still teaching and still telling yourself "maybe next year will be better" - how will you feel?

If that thought fills you with dread or resignation, then maybe it's time to stop relying on optimism and start relying on a plan.

Because the truth is, things don't get better just because you hope they will. They get better when you decide to make them better - and then take action to make it happen.

You don't have to wait for the perfect moment. You just have to stop waiting.

Categories: : Psychology of Career Change